Saturday, April 2, 2011

US Baghdad embassy will double in size: envoy

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Editor's Note: The U.S. embassy in Iraq is already the largest and most expensive in the world, reportedly costing over $1.5 billion -- Now it seems safe to double that plus some inflation.

The US embassy complex in Baghdad
© AFP/File
AFP

BAGHDAD (AFP) - The US Embassy in Baghdad, already the largest in the world, is expected to double its staff after American forces pull out of the country later this year, Washington's envoy said on Friday.

"We'll be doubling our size if all of our plans go through and if we receive the money from Congress in 2011 and then again in 2012," James Jeffrey, the US ambassador in Iraq, told reporters.

He said the staff would increase "from 8,000 plus personnel that we have now to roughly double that by 2012," adding that US forces would make up only a very small part of that number.
"This will be an extraordinarily large embassy with many different functions. Some we took over from USFI (United States Forces in Iraq) and some of them continuation of the work we are doing now."

Jeffrey said that US military advisers and trainers would stay or be added to support the Iraqi military with US-made equipment such as M1A1 tanks and other weaponry. He said the added personnel would not include combat troops.

Fewer than 50,000 US troops are currently in Iraq, down from a peak of more than 170,000 and ahead of the planned full withdrawal in late 2011.

Jeffrey and Lieutenant General Lloyd Austin, the commander of US military forces in Iraq, told members of the Armed Services Committee in February that the embassy would be well protected after the withdrawal.

A private security force some 5,500 strong will protect the large US diplomatic presence in Iraq, Jeffrey told the lawmakers.

He and Austin said they were confident that the force was adequate, and that Iraq will remain stable once US troops have departed.

They said that in 2012, the American presence in Iraq will consist of up to 20,000 civilians at sites that include two embassy branches, two consulates, and three police training centres.

The figure includes armed private security personnel, support staff and diplomats.

Currently there are 2,700 armed security contractors in Iraq, Jeffrey told the senators.

© AFP -- Published at Activist Post with license


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Monday, March 28, 2011

Essay on Iraq

Essay on Iraq

What influence has oil and politics has on Iraq?
Iraq is an example of the phrase, “don’t judge a book by its cover”. Iraq looks like a rundown state, which it is, but it is sitting on a gold mine. Iraq is apart and a huge player of the world oil industry with its history of power, national rivalry and military force.

For more than a 100 years, major powers have battled to control this enormous source of wealth and strategic power. Iraq’s oil is very plentiful; reserves in 2002 were listed at 112.5 billion barrels about 11% of the world total (Paul, 1). Iraq is the second largest producer of oil coming second to Saudi Arabia. Iraq produces 2.5 million barrels of oil a day and exporting about 2 million of these barrels (Baker, 1). Iraq’s oil is especially attractive to the big international oil companies because of three factors: high quality/high value product, huge supplies and it has exceptionally low production costs yielding a high barrel profit (Paul, 2).
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Oil has been at the heart of all discussions pertaining to Iraq. It seems that oil is very influential in Iraq only because it is the one essential thing that many major international oil company headquarters in the US and the UK can gain something out of. I honestly don’t believe that oil is truly influential to Iraq as a whole, but maybe to an elite group of people. It seems to me that oil is more of an asset and more beneficial to other countries than it is to the actual people of Iraq. On the contrary it seems like oil should be influential to Iraq because it is it’s greatest export, the oil proceeds should be sufficient to cover basic maintenance cost for the country’s oil industry but yet Iraq still has a very high percent of poverty.

In Iraq I believe that it is difficult to separate oil and politics. I think that oil causes the politics and problems that surround it. The situation is quite simple, Iraq has what everyone wants and this seems extremely feasible to many nations. As rising world demand depletes reserves in most world regions over the next ten to fifteen years, Iraq’s oil will gain increasing importance in global energy supplies (Burns, 1). According to the industry experts, “There is not an oil company in the world that doesn’t have its eye on Iraq (Burns, 1). Many believe that the war on Iraq was based on something other than freeing the Iraqi people and defending terrorism. I definitely agree with this argument, I think that terrorism was a factor but freeing the Iraqi people was not really a priority of President Bush. One criticism leveled at the US led war in Iraq has been that it is less about freeing the Iraqi people than about “liberating” Iraqi’s oil resources and bringing them under US control (Baker, 1). I believe that oil definitely was an aspect of the war. I am a critic of the war because there are many countries around the world that are potential terrorists threats yet only an oil rich Iraq was the option of war. There are many nations fighting for control of Iraq’s oil, rather than fighting about the poverty that still exists in Iraq. On one side is the US which says the coalition of nations now prosecuting the war should have control and on the other side are Iraq’s traditional oil partners led by the European Union and Russia who are saying the United Nations must have the lead role (Baker, 2). Anyway you want to look at it a three letter word plays a huge part in Iraq and it contributes to a lot of the politics of this state.

Iraq has gone through a lot in the past year. From being the main spotlight on every news channel, to the most scrutinized on other news channels. Looking towards the future of Iraq, one can only help but see the past, which has definitely been a roller coaster, and it doesn’t look like the future will be much different. Oil has been at the center of discussion and still continues to be the reason for a lot of the debate. Despite numerous attempts Iraq can ‘t quite shake the many actions of the world. Hopefully one day Iraq will be able to prosper without the controversy of war, oil and it’s leader.

Why oil revenue has not solved the major challenges of Iraq?
Oil is one of the major exports of Iraq. It has vast potential oil wealth and holds the worlds second largest known oil reserves after Saudi Arabia, but there are still major challenges that face Iraq: Poverty.

With Iraq being rich in oil, one would think that there would be no reason for Iraqi people to be suffering from poverty. This is exactly what seems to be happening; poverty is definitely alive and very much prevalent today. Twelve years of UN sanctions, three years of war in two decades and a paralyzed economy left some 4.6 million people desperately poor despite the monthly food rations offered to all Iraqi’s under the UN oil-for-food programs (Hyland, 1). I believe that sanctions are one of the reasons why Iraqi people are dealing with poverty. There are many sanctions that have been put on Iraq. I think that Iraq should be allowed to export as much oil as it can to finance needed goods under the UN oil-for-food program but there are sanctions that don’t allow this. There are many proposals included in easing some sanctions such as allowing foreign oil companies and others to invest in such Iraqi exports as fertilizer, super, urea, dates, nuts and agriculture in general (Leopold, 1).

Another reason why oil revenue has not solved the major challenges of Iraq is because Iraqi people aren’t benefiting. Among the countries twenty-two million people, a favored few have access to the most extravagant luxuries. Others suffer in a society where vast majorities of people have been reduced to poverty by two decades of war and sanctions (Hyland, 2). Granted, oil has been and is continuing to be a very prosperous field but only for Hussein and his constituents.

My opinion is simply this, I don’t think that it matters that Iraq is second in oil production if their people aren’t prospering from this wealth. All evidence indicates that the presence of oil in a developing country makes life worse, not better for the people who live there particularly the poorest people (Alexander, 1). Some argue that oil and the oil economy are all but irrelevant to the world’s poorest people as they struggle to live their lives (Alexander, 2). I totally agree with this argument even though I haven’t personally been poor, I know what it feels like to go without. These people aren’t worried about oil and the nations oil revenues, their main concern is eating, and how they are going to feed their children, this is their main concern and these concerns aren’t being dealt with. Many of these people do not own cars, they often have no access to electricity and their fuel comes from animal dung or dwindling supplies of wood (Alexander, 2). Just because Iraq produces a lot of oil doesn’t mean that there situations will improve. There have been case studies from oil producing countries, which show that unless a dramatically different approach to using oil revenues is adopted, the situation will decline. For example in Angola where oil revenues have fuelled a thirty year civil war, Sudan a country still gripped by a civil war that has been fuelled and part financed by oil, and Kazakhstan, an emerging economy with massive oil revenues but shocking poverty.

Oil can be a double edge sword. On one hand it can be a very prosperous resource that the nation can benefit from, but on the other hand it can be a necessary evil that tears a nation apart. Wherever it lies oil will always be a conflict in Iraq. Hopefully the day will come when the Iraqi government starts protecting its people and doing the job that it is supposed to be doing regardless of high oil revenue or not.

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Wednesday, January 7, 2009

Ian Bremmer's Top Ten Political Risks for 2009


Eurasia Group's Ian Bremmer just released the firm's top ten political risks for 2009. We will feature a panel discussing the ethical implications of these risks with Ian Bremmer, Michele Wucker, and Art Kleiner next week, on Jan. 13, at the Carnegie Council. Sign up for the event at gpievents@cceia.org.

Here is how Ian summarizes the top risks for the year:

First, we’ll see more state intervention in the global economy. Second, that intervention will be both reactive and uncoordinated by a series of local, regional, and national political actors who have decidedly non-global (and in many cases non-market) views of the cost/benefit equations that attend their policy decisions. In short, politics will drive the global economy more directly, and more inefficiently, in the coming year than at any point since World War II.


Below, we present a truncated excerpt of the ten risks:

1. Congress - Political risks have historically been most important for economic outcomes in emerging markets, but that’s not so this year. The current financial crisis has created an unprecedented space for government interference in economic affairs within developed states, as well. Nowhere is that more true than in Washington.

2. South Asia Security - The security environment in India, Pakistan, and Afghanistan will deteriorate significantly over the coming year, and the United States and Europe will find themselves more directly involved in conflicts in all three states, with little benefit to show for it, by the end of 2009.

3. Iran/Israel - The likelihood of the United States launching strikes against Iran has diminished considerably over the past two years, due both to internal policy wrangling between Vice President Dick Cheney and others within the Bush administration and the election of Barack Obama as president. But 2009 is the critical year for conflict (both direct and through proxies) between Iran and Israel.

4. Russia - We enter 2009 with Russia in play in a way we haven’t seen in decades. The relevant comparison isn’t 1998, when the Russians engaged in default and devaluation but remained within the bounds of their existing political and economic system (as Lenin said, two steps forward, one step back). The history to consider is 1989—as key aspects of the Russian system could change for the worse.

5. Iraq - Frankly, Iraq at number five is a good news story. With about 140,000 American troops remaining on the ground and no serious evolution of the Iraqi political model, it’s a testament to the relative improvements of security that Iraq has managed to claw its way away from a risk that keeps the world on edge.

6. Venezuela - President Hugo Chavez has made a habit of miscalculation over the years, but this may be the big one. His plans for a referendum in the coming month to reform the Venezuelan constitution and abolish term limits (which would allow Chavez to run again for the presidency in 2012) show little likelihood of success. Then the Venezuelan president will have a real political fight on his hands.

7. Mexico - While Colombia’s President Alvaro Uribe has effectively won his country’s war against the drug cartels, the same can’t be said of Mexico’s President Felipe Calderon. The security situation there has worsened and is almost certain to deteriorate further over the course of 2009. Well armed and well financed narco-criminals have effectively declared war on the state of Mexico—increasingly singling out elected government officials, bureaucrats, and the armed forces and police for their attacks. As the government continues to rely on the military to go after the drug lords, the bloodshed will continue.

8. Ukraine - As I mentioned, Ukraine isn’t likely to spur the kind of direct military conflict we saw last August in Georgia. But it merits a slot in our top risks because of the government’s inability to deal effectively with the severe challenges posed by the current financial crisis and economic downturn—and one certainly not helped by its volatile relationship with Moscow.

9. Turkey - Speaking of internal distractions, Turkey is essentially defining the problem. The country has all sorts of factors in its favor—a diversified economy, strong demographics, an extremely favorable trade route geography, and solid ties with both western countries and its Middle Eastern neighbors. Yet the fight pitting secularists in the judiciary, military, and industry against Islamists in government is becoming a serious obstacle to economic advancement. And the AK party leadership, feeling that it increasingly carries the weight of popular support on its side, is unwilling to compromise—instead, casting out potential dissent from within the party (and losing critical bureaucratic competence as a result). To make matters worse, the AK party has long lost its reformist spirit and has embraced a more nationalist attitude, making it more difficult to find a solution to the thorny Kurdish question.

10. South Africa - Rounding out the top risks for 2009 is South Africa. Upcoming elections will dominate the news, but it’s more political context than electoral results that will cause concern. It’s pretty clear that the African National Congress (ANC) will keep its majority in parliament, though the emergence of a new splinter party will reduce its numbers. In principal, that’s not a bad development; popular concerns over the ANC’s abuse of power should be reduced accordingly. But the transition is going to be hard on the ANC leadership—with South Africa’s legislators having to accept the need to cooperate with political opponents, rather than using political influence to force would-be dissidents into line. The initial reaction is likely to be a lack of patience and tolerance, undermining public confidence in South Africa’s political institutions...and providing little comfort to investors.


Notice China instability, the Persian Gulf, and climate change are not on the list. Ian sees these as either red herrings or, in climate change's case, longer term developments.