Saturday, October 8, 2011

On 'free' and managed trade


In one my last posts I promised to talk about "free trade." As I said the name itself is a misnomer, much like "free market." Not just because it suggests that those that oppose it are somehow against freedom, but mostly because it vaguely indicates that trade and markets are like natural phenomena, which would spring out if only government restrictions were eliminated.

In fact, it is well known, at least since Polanyi's classic, that the key markets in capitalist economies (those for land, labor and money) were slowly created by the interplay of social conflicts articulated through the political process and that their very existence results, in part, from the power of the State. Thus, simplistic and manicheistic views on the relation between the State versus the 'free' market miss the point of how States and markets co-evolved historically.

For example, the Bank of England, created in 1694, obtained the monopoly of money creation only after the Bank Charter Act of 1844, something that resulted from the victory of the City (financial interests) over the country banks (closer to commercial interests). The money issuing monopoly would be impossible without the backing of the government (and its monopoly of violence). The same can be said about international trade transactions. For example, it is well known that the period of the so-called first globalization (1870-1914) saw a significant increase in the volume of world trade. However, several regions actually became more 'protectionist,' i.e. increased the tariffs on trade (see Paul Bairoch for a good discussion on the topic).

In Latin America the higher tariffs allowed government revenue to increase, which, in turn, created the conditions for national armies to reduce domestic conflicts, and centralize administration, provide guarantees for foreign lenders, and fund the construction of railroads and ports. Without tariffs and higher government revenue the integration into world markets would not have been possible.

That does not mean that everybody in Latin America (or in other regions for that matter) did benefit from the increase in international trade during the period [it's worth remembering that in Mexico, towards the end of the period, peasants did revolt against the Porfiriato in the so-called Mexican Revolution of 1910]. It was not 'free' trade that produced growth, but the management of trade to produce commodities for the center (a particular project supported by local elites and international financial and commercial groups) that led to growth (with high levels of inequality).

A more logical discussion, for all these reasons, should not be about 'free' trade versus protectionism, but about what type of managed trade a given society wants, and who benefits from the different trade arrangements. For example, in current discussions about bilateral and multilateral trade agreements the issues of investment and property clauses are essential. The dispute is mostly about those that want to protect the interests of corporations (e.g. property rights, access to foreign courts, elimination of financial regulations forbidding sending profits abroad, etc.), and those that might have alternative interests (e.g. protecting domestic jobs, creating national capacity for industrial innovation, the environment, etc). In fact, for specific cases, like defense or sanitary and phytosanitary rules, it is well established that trade should be regulated, i.e. not 'free' but managed (for discussions of some current problems with the 'free' trade agenda see here and here).

But the problems for the defenders of 'free' trade are not limited to the inconsistencies of their policy positions. In fact, despite the general agreement on 'free' trade by academic (mainstream) economists, the theoretical foundations for their position are very shaky. The basis for the argument harks back to David Ricardo's Principles (and also to the parallel work by Robert Torrens). Ricardo argued that if England and Portugal traded without imposing tariffs it would be mutually beneficial, even if Portugal was better at producing both goods being traded, cloth and wine. The reason is simple. Even if Portuguese workers were more productive than their English counter-parts at producing both goods, they might be better at producing one of them (say wine) and would still benefit from putting all their efforts behind the activity at which they excelled.

In other words, the argument for trade without tariff or other restrictions was based on the the idea that trade is equivalent to access to better technology. The Portuguese could specialize in what they are better technologically, and obtain through trade the things that they do not produce. The English would have also access to better wine. Both would get cloth even if the English were less effective at producing it. The message is: specialization is the wealth of the nations.

However, what is often missed in the discussion is that the Ricardian argument for comparative advantage, as it is the case with all economic models, depends upon certain special assumptions, and that those premises responded to Ricardo's own political views. First, Ricardo assumed that all workers that were employed in wine production in England would find jobs in cloth production, and that all workers in the cloth sector in Portugal would be able to work in the wine sector. Say's Law of Markets, that suggests that general demand crisis do not take place domestically was extended to external markets too. Workers are always employed by definition (not necessarily full employment for Ricardo). Further, Ricardo assumed that capital was immobile, that is, even if it was cheaper to produce from Portugal (given its higher productivity and lower costs) and export to England, English capitalists would prefer to maintain their capital in England and produce in the home country.

Note that if any of those assumptions is violated Ricardo's argument falls apart. In other words, if workers in England and/or in Portugal in the displaced sector cannot find jobs in the other sector, it is unclear that all benefit from 'free' trade. Also, if capitalists can and do move from country to country (interestingly enough Ricardo descended from a family of bankers emigrated from Portugal to Italy, then to the Dutch Republic and finally to England) then in his example the lower costs (absolute advantage) of Portugal would determine that both cloth and wine would be produced there. England would be in a difficult situation importing both goods and condemned to grow at a lower pace, which is exactly the opposite of the historical situation (for an analysis of Anglo-Portuguese trade after the Methuen Treaty of 1703 that allowed Portuguese wine to be exported to England free of taxes and the same for English textiles into Portugal see Sandro Sideri's Trade and Power).

The reasons for Ricardo's special assumptions are very well-known. Ricardo represented financial and industrial interests, and was a harsh critic of the Corn Laws, the tariffs on imported grain imposed after the Napoleonic Wars, that favored the landed and aristocratic classes, defended by his friend Robert Malthus. Ricardo assumed that wages were at the subsistence level, and that tariffs on the importation of grain would lead to the use of more and less productive land in England for their production, increasing the rent accrued by the landowners. For a given output, and fixed wages, the higher rent would necessarily reduce profits, and capital accumulation. In other words, the special assumptions (which Ricardo thought relevant for the particular case of England in that particular historical context) were instrumental in his argument for the elimination of tariffs on grain imports. His was a progressive argument for industrialization and against the agrarian aristocracy (for a discussion of Ricardo's political views see Milgate and Stimson's Ricardian Politics).

Generalizations of the Ricardian argument can only be defended if his assumptions (including that displaced workers do find jobs and there is no capital mobility) are also thought to be generally valid. More modern arguments for 'free' trade rest on the so-called Heckscher-Ohlin-Samuleson (HOS) model, that is fraught with logical problems, and even less defensible than the generalization of Ricardian views, but I'll deal with those in another post.

PS: My paper "What Do Undergrads Really Need to Know About Trade and Finance" might provide a more detailed discussion of some of the issues above. Robert Vienneau has posted here elements of the Sraffian critique of the HOS model.

Tuesday, February 10, 2009

The "D" Word: Deglobalization

Once described as inevitable, unstoppable, and irreversible, the great economic experiment with global integration is faltering.

Before we go any further, let's be clear about something. Globalization has been declared dead before. But in the past, those peddling reports of its demise seemed just a little too eager, barely able to conceal their glee. And, of course, they were never quite able to produce the body.

This time, things are different. There are bodies everywhere. This time nobody's smiling.

Financial Times editor Martin Wolf described the mood at January's meeting of the World Economic Forum in Davos, Switzerland as "gloom verging on despair." British Prime Minister Gordon Brown warned recently that the global economy was in a "downward spiral."

These are not the voices of protest. Wolf is the author of a 2004 book titled Why Globalization Works. Brown has called globalization "a force for good." This is about as far away as you get from the anti-globalization crowd that regularly shows up to demonstrate at meetings of international financial institutions such as the World Bank, the IMF, and the WTO.

In normal times, these are voices that exemplify sobriety. These are not normal times. Brown even uttered the "D" word – depression – a word placed off limits by economists long ago out of fear that its mere use would spread unnecessary fear and minimize the collective global misery of the 1930s.

There is, however, another "D" word looming out there, one so clunky and unappealing that it is unlikely ever to end up in the title of a best-seller: Deglobalization.

When people think of globalization, they often think in terms of "flows" – trade flows, investment flows, immigration flows. This is a useful way of looking at it, because it provides an easy measure of globalization's progress at any given time. The greater the flows the more integrated the global economy has become. Over the last few decades the progress has all been in one direction.

Those days are gone. Trade flows have begun to drop off. Foreign direct investment has been declining for the last two years and is projected to dip even further in 2009.

But deglobalization, like globalization, will not merely be limited to flows of financial capital and manufactured good. It will affect people as well.

In the United Kingdom, a French-owned company's plan to hire Portuguese and Italian contractors rather than British workers recently resulted in a nationwide string of work stoppages. In South Africa, immigrants and refugees from neighboring Zimbabwe have been targets of xenophobic violence.

Economic pain has led members of both U.S. political parties to support "Buy American" and "Hire American" provisions as part of federal stimulus spending.

"The purpose of this program, asking taxpayers to sacrifice, is really not to create jobs in the European Union," Illinois Democrat Dick Durbin, the second highest ranking member of the Senate, told French news agency AFP. "I want to create jobs in Illinois."

“With the unemployment rate at 7.2 percent, there is no need for companies to hire foreign workers … when there are plenty of qualified Americans looking for jobs," added Iowa Republican Chuck Grassley.

With friends suddenly in short supply and serious talk of protectionism in the air, globalization is clearly on the run. But could the American credit and mortgage crises actually force the mighty wave of globalization into reverse?

Why not? It's happened before.

The collapse of the Byzantine Empire destroyed the 2,000 year-old Silk Road and plunged the rich world into a mercantilist scramble for colonies. The global integration of the late 19th century – a time economist John Maynard Keynes called an "extraordinary episode in the economic progress of man" – was undone by the horrors of World War I, resulting in nearly 40 years of beggar-thy-neighbor trade policies and anemic worldwide economic growth rates.

Over the last half century, globalization has had salutary effects on governance, innovation, and prosperity. It is a controversial process, to be sure, but a return to mercantilism seems certain to prolong the current crisis.

The challenge for policy makers will be to resist political pressure to de-globalize. The temptation will be strong, but giving in will not be de-lovely.



Photo Credit: Buy American! by Photo Mojo

Thursday, October 4, 2007

Creeping Protectionism

A stunning new Wall Street Journal-NBC News Poll portends a sea-change in U.S. trade policy. According to John Harwood in today’s Wall Street Journal:

Six in 10 Republicans in the poll agreed with the statement that free trade has been bad for the U.S. and said they would agree with a Republican candidate who favored tougher regulations to limit foreign imports.

This makes Matthew Slaughter and Kenneth Scheve’s prediction in Foreign Affairs look even more prescient. This summer they wrote:

U.S. policy is becoming more protectionist because the American public is becoming more protectionist and this shift in attitudes is a result of stagnant or falling incomes. Public support for engagement with the world economy is strongly linked to labor-market performance, and for most workers labor-market performance has been poor.

All of this should be of concern because, as Slaughter recently told Policy Innovations, globalization adds between $500 billion and $1 trillion to annual US income.

The leading Republican candidates for president are all still solidly pro-trade. Will they begin to change their tune in light of this emerging trend among the party base? And what about the Democrats? The new poll claims that a majority of Democrat voters believe that free-trade hurts the US. Hillary Clinton is looking less and less like her free-trading husband. She recently opposed the US-South Korea free trade pact. Will the trading stance of a Clinton presidency look more like the 1990s or the 1930s?

More to the point, if both parties start sounding the protectionist horn, what effect will that have on US incomes and growth rates around the world? Are we headed for a return to the disastrous Smoot-Hawley era of the 1930s?

Say it aint so.

- Matthew Hennessey